Can you help me understand this Political Science question?
I describe what Obama needs to do as this role-player.
Here is information about this role. And we need to think and finish this article
Barack Obama — President of the United States USA-A Faction Biography You are President Barack Obama. You were trained as a lawyer and spent many years organizing neighborhood groups in Chicago before going into politics. You were elected to the US Senate frorn Illinois in 2004. Your decision to run fer President in 2008 took people surprise. You were successful in defeating Senator Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party nomination. You ran on a message of hope and optimism. During your carnpaign you rnde it clear that you were committed to action on climate change. You feel this is the defining issue for your generation, and that a treaty is critical to d•-je future of your two daughters. Your decision to attend the final days of the conference are a high risk gamble that you can achieve an agreement. If you fail, it will be politically damaging. But you cannot suczeed so well that you get a treaty that cannot pass the Senate. Objectives Your goal is to achieve an agreement to slow global warming and reduce emigions of greenhouse gases that includes full participation by China and India. Without this, you Wii! succeed in getting the Senate to accept a treaty. Pending legislation would provi& a reducGon 2020 of about 17%. However, this legislation will almost certainly not pass wit}Eut a firm zzmmiåncnt fiüi.. future emissions. will probAy not actually reduce their total emissions but may agree to make their economies much leg energy intensive (more GDP per ton C02) Relationships Your administration is in a difficult position on this issue. While you strongly gpport action to prevent climate change, the political reality is much different. Senators from parties have made it clear that no treaty on global warming will pass the Senate and take effect if it does not include significant participation from China and India and mechanisms to insure tirir compliance. All projections show that these nations will become the two largest polluters wiåin a few years. Senator Byrd (D- WVa) has single-handedly stopped a number of environmental regulations ‘hat would limit the use ofcoal. Everyone agrees that action to stop global wzming will require reductions in coal use. Several Republican senators represent oil interests in tlrir states, and the entire Republican Party is opposed to any new regulations. The US is also the worst recession since the Great Depression pfthe 1930’s. This means that rewarces ee limited and it is critical that a treaty not destroy jobs. Stratew Advice Up until now, the Chinese have been very successful in uniting the less developed countries (LDC’s) in their demand that the US and Australia need to lead the way on reducing emisions. (The EU is already doing a pretty good job). Your “est challenge may be to split up this coalition and try to isolate China and India fror•e LDC’s. 33
One way to fry to split the poorer countries away from China is by an offer of aid.
Money for adaptation and low emission development has been a major issue for Developing Countries. Once the initial speeches are over and the debates begin’ you should use an announcement that the US will commit to helping raise $100 billion per Year by the year 2020 for remediation and energy efficient development to gain the support Of the small LDC’s and to put presstre on China. You can mention this pledge in private meetings with the LDC’S before you announce it if you wish. The amount available in 2012 would probably not be more than $30 billion. This will almost guarantee that the Developing Countries will side with you in the negotiati0ns because if you don’t succeed, this promise goes away• However, you must be clear that the US is not going to give all this money. This money will come from all the developed countries- Also’ the offer is contingent on China and India agreeing to a treaty with strong transparency. You may also take some heat because you can’t guarantee the money will all be new money and not just taking current aid and repurposing it for climate related activities. You should also be aggressive in breaking into any private meetings you observe during faction meetings or outside class between China and India and the LDC’s. If you see such a meeting, try to join in and use the opportunity to press your points and try to separate the LDC’s —Äom-China, You-should also work closely with Australia. They are the only other major developed nation thßt svpports your position. They also have close relations with the Pacific and Asian nations. may be able to succeed where you fail in negotiations because they are not perceived as such •heat. , Victory Objectives You win one point if China and India agree to a political treaty on climate change that holds warming to 2 degrees C. You do not want a legally binding treaty that will be difficult to pass in the Senate: You win a second point if the treaty approved includes strong measures for transparency and requires regular reporting and auditing by an independent body.
You can search the Internet for information about the Copenhagen conference to complete this paper.